Age of the Earth, Oil Production and Oil Consumption
In a previous post, I tried to do some rough calculations for how much oil the earth has produced. I put out the number that the earth has been producing significant amounts of life for two trillion years.
Whoops. Sorry! I guess I over-compensated for the fundies who claim the earth is only a few thousand years old.
The earth is about four and a half BILLION years old. My calculations should have been based on the earth producing significant amonts of life only for about one BILLION years.
Thus, if we assume that about 4 trillion barrels of oil have been produced by all the living matter that has accumulated on the planet to date, then that is 4000 barrels per year, which is about 168,000 gallons per year at 42 gallons per barrel. That seems like a reasonable output per year, I guess.
This however shows how the rate we are burning up the world's oil natural production. If we assume the world uses about 50 billion barrels per year, then that is 2.1 trillion gallons of oil, which works out to the world using about 10 million years-worth of its total supply every year. Obviously we can't keep this up indefinitely! Moreover, this assumes oil consumption doesn't increase, although if the world becomes more industrialized, the global oil needs will increase.
Nonetheless, if there is still about 1 trillion barrels of "reasonably" cheap, easily obtainable oil left in the world, then that is 20 years left at modest consumption rates.
These types of calculations are what keep most people from freaking out about global oil supplies. But of course we are still forestalling the inevitable, and if the world doesn't develop alternative highly efficient energy alternatives, then we will be in major trouble. Moreover, these numbers are not set in stone and are merely estimates. Other people have more troubling numbers.
The Peak Oil crowd claim that once we pass the peak, which is about NOW for cheap oil, then that is when the trouble starts. I still go back and forth about the direness of Peak Oil. On the one hand, higher oil prices over time should foster the development of alternative fuels and make them more practical. On the other hand, there really is nothing remotely close on the horizon to replace oil in terms of energy density (bang for the buck).
This site gives the grim outlook for oil supplies and alternative energy sources.
Whoops. Sorry! I guess I over-compensated for the fundies who claim the earth is only a few thousand years old.
The earth is about four and a half BILLION years old. My calculations should have been based on the earth producing significant amonts of life only for about one BILLION years.
Thus, if we assume that about 4 trillion barrels of oil have been produced by all the living matter that has accumulated on the planet to date, then that is 4000 barrels per year, which is about 168,000 gallons per year at 42 gallons per barrel. That seems like a reasonable output per year, I guess.
This however shows how the rate we are burning up the world's oil natural production. If we assume the world uses about 50 billion barrels per year, then that is 2.1 trillion gallons of oil, which works out to the world using about 10 million years-worth of its total supply every year. Obviously we can't keep this up indefinitely! Moreover, this assumes oil consumption doesn't increase, although if the world becomes more industrialized, the global oil needs will increase.
Nonetheless, if there is still about 1 trillion barrels of "reasonably" cheap, easily obtainable oil left in the world, then that is 20 years left at modest consumption rates.
These types of calculations are what keep most people from freaking out about global oil supplies. But of course we are still forestalling the inevitable, and if the world doesn't develop alternative highly efficient energy alternatives, then we will be in major trouble. Moreover, these numbers are not set in stone and are merely estimates. Other people have more troubling numbers.
The Peak Oil crowd claim that once we pass the peak, which is about NOW for cheap oil, then that is when the trouble starts. I still go back and forth about the direness of Peak Oil. On the one hand, higher oil prices over time should foster the development of alternative fuels and make them more practical. On the other hand, there really is nothing remotely close on the horizon to replace oil in terms of energy density (bang for the buck).
This site gives the grim outlook for oil supplies and alternative energy sources.
posted by spooked at 11:24 AM
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